Posted by: westlancashirerecord | May 14, 2016

The Stagnant EU Supported by Stagnant Remain Leaders?

Why is the UK electorate being battered by EU remain fear tactics? One of the worst prime ministers I have experienced life under, John Major, has claimed senior Tories were “morphing” into UKIP by pandering to immigration fears and warned it risked creating “long-term divisions” in society. Perhaps John Major might morph into an honourable person enjoying a long retirement away from public life to use his ONE vote?

The vested interests of people like John Major, and organisations that want to impose the fear factor of leaving the EU are obvious. Not just UK organisations but international too. Like the increasingly absurd IMF. Europe is economically stagnant and not where we will find long-term growth. Its economic performance compares abysmally with other developed nations. It is inefficient, makes poor decisions and has repeatedly proved itself incapable of reform. eupoor1

Various writers expose what the IMF says about Britain’s commercial arrangements with 60 non-EU economies, now under the auspices of the EU, which would lapse automatically, and would have to be renegotiated. They know full-well that this is complete bullshit! Have they never heard of the principle of “presumption of continuity” enshrined in international law? All they need do is to sign a document of continuation in force, an administrative procedure.

The IMF states in point 8 of its Article IV conclusion on the UK economy that “the cost of insuring against a UK sovereign default has doubled (albeit from a low level)”. Any normal person who does not follow the derivatives markets would interpret this as a grim warning from global investors. The price of credit default swaps on 5-year UK debt has jumped from 17 to 37 since late last year. But the IMF neglected to mention that it has risen from 15 to 33 in Switzerland, from 26 to 43 in France, and from 45 to 65 in Korea! eupoor2 [click to enlarge]

The jump has almost nothing to do with Brexit, and the IMF knows this perfectly well. The hit ranges from 1.5pc to 9.5pc of GDP. Note the decimal points. The range depends on whether it is “a la Switzerland, a la Norway, or a la WTO,” said Madame Lagarde.

Perhaps it is churlish to point out that the IMF completely missed the onset of the global financial crisis, and was blindsided when the US fell into recession in November 2007. The Fund’s staff were still predicting sunlit uplands as far as the eye could see, even when the blackest of black storms was upon them.

Its forecasts for Greece were wrong every single year following the rescue of the euro and the North European banking system in 2010, otherwise known by some cruel twist of language as the Greek bail-out. They originally said the Greek economy would contract by 2.6pc in 2010 and then recover briskly. What actually happened, as predicted at the time by the Indian member of the IMF board, was the most spectacular collapse of a developed economy in the post-war era. eupoor3[click to enlarge]

Output ultimately fell by 26pc from peak to trough. To its credit, the IMF later admitted that it had horribly misjudged the fiscal multiplier. Indeed, an admission of total incompetence. Who expects anything different now? After all, isn’t all this symptomatic of the cosy relationship between money and power in the EU?


  1. The VOTE LEAVE Campaign is supported by members of all the major political parties including local Councillors, and by people driven by common sense. If you would like to be involved or need more information contact Tony on 0333 200 4219 or Paul on 01695 572729. The EU is an out of date concept going nowhere. If we don’t get out now we will be tied forever to this unaccountable nightmare.

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